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  • sledge_hammer
    06-23 12:38 PM
    I don't believe the housing market slump will last more than 3 years!

    Echo boomers a lifeline for embattled U.S. housing | Reuters (

    NEW YORK (Reuters) - The children of baby boomers will eventually resuscitate the pummeled U.S. housing market, Harvard University said on Monday, but in the meantime, limits on income and credit are sustaining the three-year bust.

    The highest unemployment in almost 26 years, record foreclosures and rigid lending threaten to overcome emerging home sales progress despite unprecedented efforts by the Obama administration, Harvard's State of the Nation's Housing 2009 report said.

    Echo boomers, the children of the post-World War Two baby boomer generation, offer a massive source of support for housing, the study said. The generation is entering the peak home buying and renting ages of 25 to 44 and numbers over five million people more than did their parents' record-sized group in the 1970s.

    "Echo boomers are larger than the baby boomer population. Couple that with immigration and you have the seeds, the possibility of a housing recovery," Nicolas Retsinas, director of Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies, said in an interview.

    The group will bolster demand for the next 10 years and beyond, supporting the sagging housing market even if immigration drops, the study said.

    The challenges are myriad, however, said Retsinas, a widely followed housing industry expert and former senior official in the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

    "We have to find a way to stabilize housing finance in this country," he said.

    A healthy housing market is integral to a growing economy. In the current cycle, the housing crash has propelled the economy into its longest recession since the Great Depression. Jobs lost to the recession have derailed any housing recovery.

    "Seedlings of the housing recovery have to come through this thicket of job losses and foreclosures," Retsinas said. "The housing market has not seen these challenges for over 60 years."

    Mortgage rates have risen from all-time lows in the past two months despite massive government steps to keep them down.

    Foreclosures escalate as federal efforts to keep borrowers in their houses cannot keep pace with loan failures caused by job losses or punishing home price erosion.


    Home sales have started to pick up, thanks mostly to a first-time buyer tax credit this year of up to $8,000 and demand for foreclosure properties at bargain-basement prices.

    "While we do see some signs of stabilization, you can barely see those silver linings," Retsinas said.

    The lending pendulum swung vastly after the unsustainable five-year record home price surge early this decade. Lenders clamped down after lax conditions spawned record home sales and then fueled the torrent of foreclosures.

    Now, more than 85 percent of mortgage loans are created through the government and its agencies. Private lending companies either shut down or slammed on the credit brakes to prevent a repeat of major losses on flawed loans.

    What happens to mortgage availability currently rests in the hands of the federal government, the report said.

    But Retsinas noted: "Eventually you want a sustainable credit system, and that has to include private capital."

    The share of minority households, hurt most in the housing crisis, will rise to 35 percent in 2020 from 29 percent in 2005, the study projected. Those households typically have lower average incomes and wealth, and higher unemployment.

    In Cleveland, Boston and Washington, DC, price declines at the low end of the market through December were more than twice those at the high end in percentage terms, while in San Francisco they were nearly three times greater.

    Real median household incomes in all age groups under 55 have not risen since 2000, the Harvard study said. For the first time in at least 40 years, there is a chance that median household income will end the decade lower than where it started.

    The severity of the recession could hold incomes down for years.

    "The number of households that were severely cost-burdened -- people paying over 50 percent of their income for housing -- has grown dramatically," Retsinas said. The number spiked by 30 percent to 17.9 million between 2001 and 2007, the most recent data available.

    "The reality is that it's not just the cost of a house, but it's how much you make," he said. "Of course as people struggle with their jobs, as they lose that second job, they lose that overtime, their income drops make it more difficult to pay."

    Echo boomers will expand the number of needed housing units. But they also likely will enter the housing market with lower real incomes than people the same age did a decade ago, the study said.

    "While fundamentally we see what could be the foundation for long-term recovery, we still have to get through today's challenges," said Retsinas.

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  • mariner5555
    04-20 01:04 AM
    since nothing much is happening - I thought that I would post this - seems like a worst case scenario -but who knows ..some of his predictions have already come true ..this was interview on mar 24.
    Q. Where are home prices going?

    A. Two years ago, I predicted home prices would fall cumulatively 20%, but now I believe it will be at least 30%.

    With a 20% fall in home prices, about 16 million households are under water. They have negative equity, which means the value of their homes is below the value of their mortgages. With a 30% drop in prices, you have 21 million households that are in negative equity. And since the mortgages are no-recourse loans, essentially they can walk away.

    Even if only half of the 16 million households were to walk away, that alone could lead to losses for the financial system of $1 trillion. Even a 20% drop in home values may imply losses of $1 trillion that are not priced into the market today. So that's the floor. Again, it could be higher — as much as $2 trillion — if prices fall 30% and more people walk.

    Q. You are predicting problems in commercial real estate, which we haven't seen yet. When do you expect the crisis to hit?

    A. The same kind of reckless lending practices that occurred in subprime also occurred in commercial real estate — things like really high loan-to-value ratios and inflated estimations of how much rent would increase. If you look at the CMBX index (which tracks bonds backed by real estate loans), the spreads imply a huge number of defaults on existing commercial real estate loans. More important, the market for new commercial real estate loans is totally frozen, like the one for subprime new originations.

    Q. But when will this happen?

    A. That shoe has not dropped yet. But I expect the severe recession in residential housing will lead to a severe recession in commercial real estate. The reason is simple: If you go west, you have entire ghost towns outside of Phoenix, Las Vegas and throughout California. Who is going to be building new shopping centers, shopping malls, offices and stores where you have ghost towns? Also, there has been a lot of commercial real estate activity in the last couple of years, including a huge increase in retail capacity at a time of consumer-led recession. So, I expect [a commercial real estate] collapse will occur in the next few quarters.

    Q. How bad will things get?

    A. I would argue this is the worst financial crisis the U.S. has had since the Great Depression. We haven't seen this type of real financial turmoil for the last 70 years. Of course, it's not going to be as bad as the Great Depression. But this isn't your typical run-of-the-mill recession that in the last two episodes lasted only eight months with a minor contraction in output. This is going to last at least 12 months and more likely 18 months, which is something we haven't seen in decades.

    Q. So you expect the economy to start turning around in mid-2009?

    A. The real economic activity, yes. But some parts of the system are going to be in a severe contraction for much longer; home prices are going to keep falling for another three years, in my view. And the financial mess is going to take years to clean up.

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  • delax
    07-14 10:14 AM
    Eb2- I people are wrong when they think any steps taken by EB3-I are because of jealousy. I have contributed in each of IV effort knowing fully well that Eb3I is not going to be benefited by the effort. Still someone was getting the benefit. Now if EB3I want to do something, what is the issue? If a person from Eb2I with PD of 2006 feels that the reason behind efforts taken by a EB3 I person with PD of 2001/2002 is jealousy, then the EB2I person is being very narrow in his/her thinking. It should not take a huge amount of brainpower to realize the frustration and sadness the EB3 I person would be feeling. Irrespective of this I think a lot of people who contribute to IV campaigns are EB3I.

    Everyone irrespective of what category he or she is would very easily realize that Eb3I needs help, else it is going nowhere. By reading comments in this thread, my fear is coming true that the help needed may not come from IV. Once all EB2 people get their GC, there would be no further fight for EB3.

    Sure EB3-I needs help, but if the help is in the form of taking numbers away from EB2 and giving them to EB3 just based on the length of wait, then I have my serious objections to this proposal. I have said openly that I will object to it - I have never seen a post that says plainly - Yes EB3-I is stuck for 7-8 years and therefore they want numbers from EB2 because EB2 has moved ahead by 2 years. The irony is that all earlier posts imply this and talk about this request for handover in a very general way (75/25 break up, recession, lawyer input, etc).

    Visa recapture, country cap elimination is where the solution lies. That is the REAL help that EB3-Retro wants. Any short term fix purely out of sympathy, empathy, humanity, kindness is not recogniszed by law.

    I know people will pile on for speaking plainly and in a matter of fact manner, but I am amazed at the innuendo, implications and lack of straight talk.

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  • michelle88
    07-13 02:15 PM
    the better way is to mention: 1) eb3 with earlier PD (before the end of 2005), the prevailing wage category was set higher, i.e, salary $60K fell in eb3 in 2004 but could be in eb2 in 2006. 2) LC based eb3 should be processed before perm based eb2, as the processing time for this step should be weighted to be evaluated in a bit fair way.

    Very good point by alterego.
    This letter has a very striking problem in it.. one that can cause a huge problem for the people signing it.
    How can one say that they wanted to apply in EB2, but their lawyer said they should apply in EB3?
    As pointed out by pappu, Category is determined by job requirements and not the summary qualifications of the beneficiary.
    If you sign and say that the lawyer said you should apply in EB3/EB2/whatever, you are essentially stating that lawyers were involved in fabricating the job requirements. This is the same problem that is causing Fragomen clients to be investigated/audited.
    This is just an advice. I am prepared to support IV and the members in whatever we decide to follow.


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  • titanicman
    12-18 11:05 PM
    thank you marphad for starting this topic, a creative discussion should go on.
    we have lot of threads for immigration, this topic shows various opinions from differnt people. once agian congarts marphad for this thread.

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  • new2gc
    03-24 06:19 PM
    My Dear Friend:

    Why do you want to defend crooks? Instead of ackowledging the fact that desi consulting companies are exploiting loopholes, you rather want to know why other companies are not feeling the heat. This is typical of us desis. There is absolutely no introspection.

    For once, accept that we are at fault.

    Its like this - You are in school and your teacher catches you copying off the next person. Now instead of correcting yourself, if you complain to the teacher that another classmate was also copying so you should not be penalized, will your treacher let you go?

    Again, I am not defending anyone, I am saying that we should point all the consultanting...not just desi consulting ones...just don't descriminate...from your theory, it looks it is ok to copy unless you are caught.....I don't want to argue on this and deviate from the OP .


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  • myuname
    04-06 10:44 PM
    I guess the only way US of A will ever understand its worth in the world is when: (I am just referring to hypocritical US of A'ans, there are good people too.)

    1) India and China stop sending so many Engineers and doctors.
    2) China and south-east Asia stop supplying Nike's and toilet paper to Walmart's

    I guess the positive side of this H1 bill will be further development of Indian and Chinese economies via decreased brain-drain. I guess it already slowed down (to a trickle?!) quite a bit in the past few years and I Hope this bill plugs the leaks too. Hurray! No more brain drain from India and China.

    Why didn't this happen a few years ago and I wouldn't even have had any regrets being in US of A ever. Yikes!

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  • chanduv23
    02-15 10:58 AM
    As we are not voting public and voting public are against us, and employers do little for us, what is the basis in which we can influence politicians buy our cause?


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  • Bpositive
    01-06 04:06 PM
    children being killed is sad beyond belief...i can't even imagine the pain of their parents! however, it isn't it hamas' position that israel doesn't have the right to exist? when will the madness end?

    btw i am not religious at all. i believe organized religion is a method of oppression and creation of unthinking clones. but i sure as hell don't want to die for being a non-believer! in my mind the only solution is to live a good life - "and it doesn't need someone to tell you what good is" - and protect and cherish the country/community that nurtures you.

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  • gcisadawg
    12-26 11:40 PM
    So, you want to remove the threat of nuclear weapons by using them?

    Well, remove the threat by telling Clearly and unmistakably that use of nuclear weapon by Pakistan would invite catastrophic counter attack. Not by using it. Remember, India has "no first use" policy....

    Otherwise what happens...Pak would keep taunting that " Hey, remember we have nukes...wanna pick a fight with us?" and keep doing what they are doing. They are trying to take the option of war OFF the table. India should keep it in the table but use very very cautiously.

    Peace again,


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  • yabadaba
    08-11 01:43 PM

    you will have to type in cable news in the employer name box

    and change the state to Georgia

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  • willwin
    07-13 11:21 AM
    Here is my 2 cents worth...

    Pappu, are you saying that whatever initiative that IV has taken now to address recapturing (HR5882), per country limit removal and STEM are GOOD ENOUGH as long as we have mass support and no further effort required?

    Well, If we are not having enough support, I am not sure how much of that we could change.

    What EB3 I wants to accomplish here is to emphasize that we are retrogressed beyond logic, limits and reason.

    What we could probably do is, write a letter describing our plight and also mention in the letter, the IV effort that is underway. By doing this, we can emphasize our situation and at the same time substantiate IV's effort.

    We can come up with agreeable facts that should go in the letter that explains EB3 I plight. IV core can help with this and also proof read and approve final version of the doc. We should stress on date being stuck in 2001. And AC21 not giving a whole lot flexibility to change jobs even with EAD. Like a programmer with 7 years of experience would be eligible to become a PM (if the person has acquired right skills/knowledge/experience) but I am not sure if AC21 allows a person to do that.

    Besides, EAD is not GC. If not, let them announce EAD as temp GC - meaning issuing EAD means GC is approved but the card is not issued owing to number availability - Makes sense? In other words, once EAD is issued the person's GC should not be disapproved. The clock for citizenship should start with I140 approval. That way the applicant will have the peace of mind! And then let DOS/USCIS issue GC at their own pace!!


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  • wantgc23
    08-11 07:55 PM
    really good thread

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  • Macaca
    02-21 04:18 PM
    we are targeting him because he is saying things which are inaccurate if not ludicrous regarding immigration.

    Is it posible to post these inaccuracies about us. I want to post them here (

    I want to post the general apathy of media towards us. However, all I have is no one reports about us. Any more ideas? Thanks.


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  • yrspassby
    08-07 04:38 PM
    My wife and I were happy for twenty years. Then we met.

    When a man brings his wife flowers for no reason, there's a reason.

    Always get married early in the morning. That way, if it doesn't work out, you haven't wasted a whole day.

    In olden times, sacrifices were made at the altar, a practice that still continues.

    Getting married is very much like going to a restaurant with friends. You order what you want, then when you see what the other fellow has, you wish you had ordered that.

    I think men who have a pierced ear are better prepared for marriage. They've experienced pain and bought jewelry.

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  • Pineapple
    12-24 03:21 PM
    What a tiresome thread!!!

    Several years ago, people actually made an effort to make IV an organization representing all skilled workers, from all parts of the world. Now, immigration matters are totally irrelevant on the forums. Heck, forget about being an exclusively India focused forum, as this thread demonstrates, it is a venue to vent on matters even more narrowly focused - My religion, my sect, my opinion, my petty prejudices. If this is not irrelevant enough, we have enough threads on red dot-green dots to justify a whole separate category of forums :rolleyes:
    Anyway, it does a pretty good job of turning off people. I guarantee you this thread alone has contributed significantly in influencing many planning on attending the March rally to change their mind. It sure did mine.


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  • NKR
    08-06 04:15 PM
    That PD was for an entirely different skill set and job. I know its the law. I still disagree. Can do that last I knew :-)

    If you go strictly by that, then allocating unused EB1 visa numbers to EB2 is also wrong. EB1 visas are meant for an entirely different skill set and job.

    EB2 guys and EB3 guys are at a disadvantage depending on which way you look at it. I guess capturing previous years� unused visa numbers is the only way to go then�

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  • chanduv23
    03-23 03:50 PM hit nail..yes..I initially worked with that company that started with S**..but I changed them after 1 year after coming to US

    So, keep cool. Talk to an Attorney. use a good Attorney for everything from now. You can forward the email request to the Attorney and go from there.

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  • Macaca
    03-06 09:02 PM
    General Process for FY 2006 and Subsequent Fiscal Year H-1B Filings ( 45e)
    Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): Fiscal Year 2005 ( November 2006
    Visa Statistics ( Report of the Visa Office Department of State

    The Report of the Visa Office is an annual report providing statistical information on immigrant and non-immigrant visa issuances by consular offices, as well as information on the use of visa numbers in numerically limited categories.

    Visa Statistics ( Department of Homeland Security

    Nonimmigrant Visas Issued by Classification (Including Crewlist Visas and Border Crossing Cards): Table XVI(B)

    Fiscal Years 2002-2006 (
    Fiscal Years 2001-2005 (
    Fiscal Years 2000-2004 (

    04-09 10:03 AM
    There are many big companies that depend completely on consultants for their software projects. Example Sony, Boeing... If this applies to existing H1bs then their projects will suffer a great loss.

    ERP softwares basically are implemented by consulting firms .Then all big companies including Oracle,SAP cannot implement their applications anywhere as they have to hire people on their own to implement.All ERP implementations can be treated as consulting.This is going to be a big mess.

    I don't think this bill is going pass successfully.
    Not true. For many software development projects, it really doesn't matter whether the developers are located in US or in India. What they need onshore is project/program managers or IT architects, who they can hire directly via H1-B not via consulting firm. For those H1-Bs the new bill's restrictions will not be a problem.

    If this bill passes, I can see that many US employers start hiring the highly-valued onshore consultants as their employees via H1-B, and let the rest stay in consulting firm either onshore or offshore. It is so-called "insourcing" which is very popular among big firms nowadays. So this bill is going to be bad for H1-B based consulting firms, good for US employers and future H1-B workers (either new or extended). In the short term though, it is not going to help US workers much, because most companies would ship onshore consulting jobs offshore rather than hiring US workers to fill them. However, in the long term it prevents "some" consulting firms (bodyshoppers) from abusing H1-B workers which benefit us all. I expect this bill will also ease the EB retrogression in the future because there will be less H1-Bs waiting in queue especially from India or China.

    08-07 12:13 PM
    nogc_noproblem , u r 5 star *****

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