Aah_GC
04-25 10:30 AM
All,
Opened my email this morning to see the card production ordered email (time stamp in my inbox reads 2:15 am PST 4/23/08); the approval date was 4/23/08.
Been in meetings all day so not even a chance to call anyone about it.
Yay!
Good luck to all my fellow sufferers!
Googler
May congratulations to you Googler and wish you have a great future ahead.
Opened my email this morning to see the card production ordered email (time stamp in my inbox reads 2:15 am PST 4/23/08); the approval date was 4/23/08.
Been in meetings all day so not even a chance to call anyone about it.
Yay!
Good luck to all my fellow sufferers!
Googler
May congratulations to you Googler and wish you have a great future ahead.
wallpaper happy birthday text art
transpass
04-10 12:07 PM
Here are the details for last year and years before:
(Thanks to user "sangiano" on : link: FY2009 Visa Data, Spillover to EB2 - Will it be Similar FY2010 (http://www..com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/498198953/fy2009-visa-data-spillover-to-eb2-will-it-be-similar-fy2010))
Employment Visas 2009
Total Employment Visas for FY2009 = 141,020
Theoretical values without spillover
EB1 28.6% = 40,332
EB2 28.6% = 40,332
EB3 28.6% = 40,332
EB4 7.1% = 10,012
EB5 7.1% = 10,012
Actual values with spillover
EB1 40,978 = 29.1% received c.650 spillup visa used
EB2 46,034 = 32.6% received c.5,700 spillover visas used
EB3 39,791 = 28.2% received c.550 less visas than quota
EB4 9,999 = 7.1% Zero spillup visas to give
EB5 4,218 = 3.0% c. 5,800 spillup visas to give
What is noteworthy is the fact that spillup/spillover visas were only available from EB5.
In addition, EB1 actually consumed spillup visas and did not contribute any spillover visas as a result.
This implies that the total spillover visas available to the 7% limited countries was only c.7,500. Since 5,800 came from EB5, less 650 used by EB1, this gives a subtotal of 5,150. In turn, this implies that there were only 7,500 - 5,150 = 2,350 as spillover from EB2-ROW. In the worst case the difference is entirely from EB5.
I think it gives food for thought and shows the difficulty of trying to second guess visa consumption in Categories that are always current. I accept it might be easier to get a handle on non-NIW EB2 because of the PERM data available for ROW.
I'm not sure why FY2010 would be much different, at least for EB1 spillover.
Additional notes from subsequent posts:
There was significant spillover in FY2007 because (based on 154,497 total EB visas) :
EB1 only used 26,806 out of a possible 44,186 available visas.
EB4 only used 4,794 out of a possible 10,969 available visas.
EB5 only used 793 out of a possible 10,969 available visas.
That gives a potential spillover of 33,731 visas to categories below EB1. In FY2007 that mostly went vertically to EB3.
There was significant spillover in FY2008 because (based on 162,949 total EB visas) :
EB1 only used 36,590 out of a possible 46,603 available visas.
EB4 only used 7,648 out of a possible 11,569 available visas.
EB5 only used 1,443 out of a possible 11,569 available visas.
That gives a potential spillover of 24,060 visas to categories below EB1. In FY2008 that all went to EB2.
The amount *was* smaller in FY2009 because (based on 141,020 total EB visas)
EB1 used 40,978 which was more than the available visas of 40,332 (i.e. it used some of the spillup from EB4/EB5).
EB4 used 9,999 out of a possible 10,012 available visas. (i.e it pretty much maxed out)
EB5 only used 4,218 out of a possible 10,012 available visas. (i.e. much higher than previous years)
That gives a potential spillover to EB2 of 5,161 visas, which is substantially lower than previous years.
This is all his analysis based entirely on historic data (no predictions here; just what has already happened). All credit of analysis goes to him. I never crunched a single number; I am just an "integrater" of the info. Please also note that now we have found out that the word "spillover" should actually be "fall across and down"
Hope this was the info you were asking for.
Thanks Kondur. That was a very good presentation of the numbers. I very much appreciate it.
Now,
1. Why did EB1 last year needed spillover visas, although it was current all the time? If a category is current, isn't that it has less demand than allocated numbers?
2. As per May bulletin, EB4 might need a cut off. So we cannot expect any spillover from EB4. So that is clear. Now the spillover chances are from EB5, EB2 ROW and EB1(?). I am including EB1 because, given the current economy over the past year, should there be a better possibility of more spillover from EB2 ROW and EB1 compared to last year?
3. Also why are the total EB numbers different in different fiscal years (e.g., 141020 in FY2009, 162949 in FY 2008 and 154497 in FY2007)? In FYs 2007 and 2008 did the extra visas come from Family based while it did not for FY 2009? If so, why is it so?
4. Based on Pending 485 data of March 2010, I barely see few hundred EB4s. And hardly considerable number of EB1s. What's going on? If we go by this data, we should be getting good chunk of spillover numbers...
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory-Total%203-8-2010.pdf
Thanks,
(Thanks to user "sangiano" on : link: FY2009 Visa Data, Spillover to EB2 - Will it be Similar FY2010 (http://www..com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/498198953/fy2009-visa-data-spillover-to-eb2-will-it-be-similar-fy2010))
Employment Visas 2009
Total Employment Visas for FY2009 = 141,020
Theoretical values without spillover
EB1 28.6% = 40,332
EB2 28.6% = 40,332
EB3 28.6% = 40,332
EB4 7.1% = 10,012
EB5 7.1% = 10,012
Actual values with spillover
EB1 40,978 = 29.1% received c.650 spillup visa used
EB2 46,034 = 32.6% received c.5,700 spillover visas used
EB3 39,791 = 28.2% received c.550 less visas than quota
EB4 9,999 = 7.1% Zero spillup visas to give
EB5 4,218 = 3.0% c. 5,800 spillup visas to give
What is noteworthy is the fact that spillup/spillover visas were only available from EB5.
In addition, EB1 actually consumed spillup visas and did not contribute any spillover visas as a result.
This implies that the total spillover visas available to the 7% limited countries was only c.7,500. Since 5,800 came from EB5, less 650 used by EB1, this gives a subtotal of 5,150. In turn, this implies that there were only 7,500 - 5,150 = 2,350 as spillover from EB2-ROW. In the worst case the difference is entirely from EB5.
I think it gives food for thought and shows the difficulty of trying to second guess visa consumption in Categories that are always current. I accept it might be easier to get a handle on non-NIW EB2 because of the PERM data available for ROW.
I'm not sure why FY2010 would be much different, at least for EB1 spillover.
Additional notes from subsequent posts:
There was significant spillover in FY2007 because (based on 154,497 total EB visas) :
EB1 only used 26,806 out of a possible 44,186 available visas.
EB4 only used 4,794 out of a possible 10,969 available visas.
EB5 only used 793 out of a possible 10,969 available visas.
That gives a potential spillover of 33,731 visas to categories below EB1. In FY2007 that mostly went vertically to EB3.
There was significant spillover in FY2008 because (based on 162,949 total EB visas) :
EB1 only used 36,590 out of a possible 46,603 available visas.
EB4 only used 7,648 out of a possible 11,569 available visas.
EB5 only used 1,443 out of a possible 11,569 available visas.
That gives a potential spillover of 24,060 visas to categories below EB1. In FY2008 that all went to EB2.
The amount *was* smaller in FY2009 because (based on 141,020 total EB visas)
EB1 used 40,978 which was more than the available visas of 40,332 (i.e. it used some of the spillup from EB4/EB5).
EB4 used 9,999 out of a possible 10,012 available visas. (i.e it pretty much maxed out)
EB5 only used 4,218 out of a possible 10,012 available visas. (i.e. much higher than previous years)
That gives a potential spillover to EB2 of 5,161 visas, which is substantially lower than previous years.
This is all his analysis based entirely on historic data (no predictions here; just what has already happened). All credit of analysis goes to him. I never crunched a single number; I am just an "integrater" of the info. Please also note that now we have found out that the word "spillover" should actually be "fall across and down"
Hope this was the info you were asking for.
Thanks Kondur. That was a very good presentation of the numbers. I very much appreciate it.
Now,
1. Why did EB1 last year needed spillover visas, although it was current all the time? If a category is current, isn't that it has less demand than allocated numbers?
2. As per May bulletin, EB4 might need a cut off. So we cannot expect any spillover from EB4. So that is clear. Now the spillover chances are from EB5, EB2 ROW and EB1(?). I am including EB1 because, given the current economy over the past year, should there be a better possibility of more spillover from EB2 ROW and EB1 compared to last year?
3. Also why are the total EB numbers different in different fiscal years (e.g., 141020 in FY2009, 162949 in FY 2008 and 154497 in FY2007)? In FYs 2007 and 2008 did the extra visas come from Family based while it did not for FY 2009? If so, why is it so?
4. Based on Pending 485 data of March 2010, I barely see few hundred EB4s. And hardly considerable number of EB1s. What's going on? If we go by this data, we should be getting good chunk of spillover numbers...
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory-Total%203-8-2010.pdf
Thanks,
tnite
08-15 04:39 PM
http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_3761.html
Not bad for EB2 India/China ,the dates are the same as june bulletin
Not bad for EB2 India/China ,the dates are the same as june bulletin
2011 happy birthday text art facebook. Facebook ASCII Happy Birthday Balloon May
vandanaverdia
09-12 06:58 PM
"If you would create something,
you must be something."
- Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
Be a part of creating history... Come to DC...
Help IV help you...
you must be something."
- Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
Be a part of creating history... Come to DC...
Help IV help you...
more...
sri1309
03-30 03:09 PM
Number USA is ready to kill our bill. If we introduce at time nothing is going to happen . Even it may kill CIR and that is what Anti wants.. This guy is encouraging people to push for recapture which will die soon. Why he didnot update profile. Even if he is good member he should pledge 25 $.
Did you read undocumented guys are trying to push their cause and by putting legals aside, which the goverment seems to be hearing. What makes you feel we must wait.. Just because you cannot contribute anything except for yourself. .People waiting for close to 10 years are usually in a position to create value and they are tied to this backlogs. We know EB2 is going at some pace.. How much time do you think is needed for EB2 to be in bin, into the same state as EB3 is in, right now.
Did you read undocumented guys are trying to push their cause and by putting legals aside, which the goverment seems to be hearing. What makes you feel we must wait.. Just because you cannot contribute anything except for yourself. .People waiting for close to 10 years are usually in a position to create value and they are tied to this backlogs. We know EB2 is going at some pace.. How much time do you think is needed for EB2 to be in bin, into the same state as EB3 is in, right now.
anurakt
01-17 02:08 PM
Well Said Pappu, if you ask for people to ask IV for updates 20 times a day, we will get thousands of contributions ...but when it comes to money to support the cause .....all these beggers (yes beggers ! ) don't show the faces. These people call themselves high skilled , I call them high skilled beggers ...they want everything without contributing a cent .... shame on you beggers ... Please go back to your country , you won't get GC.....:mad: :mad:
Shameless creatures, not even a single guy came and blasted me out for such comments ..! This means that I am telling the truth. You guys don't even have any self dignity left to come and face off with me.
:mad: :mad:
Shameless creatures, not even a single guy came and blasted me out for such comments ..! This means that I am telling the truth. You guys don't even have any self dignity left to come and face off with me.
:mad: :mad:
more...
thomachan72
07-13 09:20 AM
Do any of you think that the dates will move forward next month? Looking at the backlog numbers published by USCIS, I think they moved as far as they could to make use of all the available visas. I am thinking that the move next month might be only a few days or a month at the max. USCIS mentioned last month that we could expect the dates to be March/April 06 at the end of this fiscal year. Will this mean that EB2I will hold out at March / April 06 for the next fiscal year?
Interesting question. You are probably quite accurate but there still remains some hope of a few months movement:D:D
Interesting question. You are probably quite accurate but there still remains some hope of a few months movement:D:D
2010 Happy Birthday - Postcard
bodhi_tree
06-06 01:59 PM
We got the "welcome" and "card production ordered" email for my wife and I today too. It was a long frustrating wait at times but I am glad its over for us now. Our best wishes to those that are still waiting.
No RFE at any stage, straight forward case, never called them for status or infopass. Took them about 4.5 years.
Here are our dates for those interested in tracking.
PD: Jan 29, 2004, EB2
Ohio labor approved - Oct 2004
45 day letter - Jan 2005
Labor approved from Dalla BEC - June 2006
I I140 regular, non concurrent approved - Sept 2006
I 485 sent to Nebraska - July 13 2007
EAD approved - Oct 2007
I485 approval email - June,06, 2008
No RFE at any stage, straight forward case, never called them for status or infopass. Took them about 4.5 years.
Here are our dates for those interested in tracking.
PD: Jan 29, 2004, EB2
Ohio labor approved - Oct 2004
45 day letter - Jan 2005
Labor approved from Dalla BEC - June 2006
I I140 regular, non concurrent approved - Sept 2006
I 485 sent to Nebraska - July 13 2007
EAD approved - Oct 2007
I485 approval email - June,06, 2008
more...
javadeveloper
01-30 11:54 AM
Hello all,
A few days ago I started a thread where laid off folks can post their qualifications and people who know of job openings can let them know.
Unfortunately, yesterday I received an email saying that an RFE was raised about my 485. My PD is Sept 2005 in EB3. WTH is my case being processed now? I saw in some other threads also that people with further off PDs are getting RFEs. Can someone shed some light on what the RFE may be about?
I used AC21 earlier last year after completing 180 days of filing 485 and got a new H1 approved. My 140 is approved and my previous employer has not revoked it. They only revoked the H1 and that too about 7 months ago. My new (now ex) employer hasnt revoked my H1 yet.
How long does it take for the RFE to come? I suppose it will goto my old company's lawyer though they are nice folks and will let me know.
RFE Usually you'll get with in a week
RFE may not be due to Job change(s)/AC21 , may be because of some other issues like Birth certificate,Medicals etc
Did you sent AC21 related documentation to CIS?
A few days ago I started a thread where laid off folks can post their qualifications and people who know of job openings can let them know.
Unfortunately, yesterday I received an email saying that an RFE was raised about my 485. My PD is Sept 2005 in EB3. WTH is my case being processed now? I saw in some other threads also that people with further off PDs are getting RFEs. Can someone shed some light on what the RFE may be about?
I used AC21 earlier last year after completing 180 days of filing 485 and got a new H1 approved. My 140 is approved and my previous employer has not revoked it. They only revoked the H1 and that too about 7 months ago. My new (now ex) employer hasnt revoked my H1 yet.
How long does it take for the RFE to come? I suppose it will goto my old company's lawyer though they are nice folks and will let me know.
RFE Usually you'll get with in a week
RFE may not be due to Job change(s)/AC21 , may be because of some other issues like Birth certificate,Medicals etc
Did you sent AC21 related documentation to CIS?
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msgrewal81
02-19 02:44 PM
Looks like lots of >5 years people here. :D
It is my feeling that "Illegals>5 years" should not be preferred over "legals<5 years". I also think that this bill makes things tough for<5 years except temporarily reducing backlog(that too is a big 'maybe') . I am not arguing. You do what you do and I do what I do. I dont know what IV will do.
Thanks and good luck.
It is my feeling that "Illegals>5 years" should not be preferred over "legals<5 years". I also think that this bill makes things tough for<5 years except temporarily reducing backlog(that too is a big 'maybe') . I am not arguing. You do what you do and I do what I do. I dont know what IV will do.
Thanks and good luck.
more...
harish
04-23 08:06 PM
Congratulations Googler!
Hopefully we can still look forward to receiving updates from you in the future! :)
Hopefully we can still look forward to receiving updates from you in the future! :)
hot Happy Birthday to you
nozerd
01-27 11:40 AM
Well Alisa,
Do you think its fair to discriminate someone based on their country of birth with all else being equal ?
Do you think its fair to discriminate someone based on their country of birth with all else being equal ?
more...
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eilsoe
03-04 02:16 PM
uuh... crap...
*goes to work on entry*
*goes to work on entry*
tattoo Happy Birthday from The
pbojja
03-10 03:03 PM
If you feel good by giving red then pls do it, but that doesn't change what's coming in your way.
This is turning out to be TRUE.
Past week, I made this comment and some people made fun of it. But, it's turning out to be true. They are now fully focusing on EB3 and I think they will continue to do untill they finish all Eb3. Once they reached last quarter then they will make EB2-I/C current and distribute those spill-over visas across EB. They don't have to make EB3-ROW current to give some spill-over to EB3-I. What ever will be left at the end of quarter will be spilled across EB's.
They will do what ever They want to do ..They will take decssions based on them .. They may spill ..They may not spill ...They may suffer ..They may not suffer ..They may left over ..They may not left over ..
Where They can be DOS,USCIS,Applicant or Numbers
This is turning out to be TRUE.
Past week, I made this comment and some people made fun of it. But, it's turning out to be true. They are now fully focusing on EB3 and I think they will continue to do untill they finish all Eb3. Once they reached last quarter then they will make EB2-I/C current and distribute those spill-over visas across EB. They don't have to make EB3-ROW current to give some spill-over to EB3-I. What ever will be left at the end of quarter will be spilled across EB's.
They will do what ever They want to do ..They will take decssions based on them .. They may spill ..They may not spill ...They may suffer ..They may not suffer ..They may left over ..They may not left over ..
Where They can be DOS,USCIS,Applicant or Numbers
more...
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meridiani.planum
03-03 06:13 PM
Consider this:
Even though IV has 25000 "registered" members. There are only 400-500 visitors. The same people visit the site often. The number of visitors dramatically increase, if there are newsworthy events that affects most of the people.
So the sample size is NOT 25K but around 500, based on the daily visits.
This of course is not a whole lot but Idea is not to be statistically correct but to feed newsworthy information to the Media, and here are the facts.
a) 1 MM people in the line for EB green card
b) All of them highly skilled with at least bachelors
c) Average income 75K +
d) Average family size: Slightly more than 2 .
e) Life Dream : The American Dream
f) Bottleneck to the life dream : The long ,excruciating backlogs.
thats even worse. you are taking a poll of 500 people (*IF* you get that many respondents to this poll, my feeling is you wont cross 250) and expanding that to 1 million people in line for EB greencard.
This is not extrapolation, its a joke.
For the sake of the immigrant community, please dont drag CNN to Immigrationvoice.org to look at a poll that 200 people took of which 50 claim they would buy a house if they got a GC tomorrow. We all lose credibility if we make such statements.
Even though IV has 25000 "registered" members. There are only 400-500 visitors. The same people visit the site often. The number of visitors dramatically increase, if there are newsworthy events that affects most of the people.
So the sample size is NOT 25K but around 500, based on the daily visits.
This of course is not a whole lot but Idea is not to be statistically correct but to feed newsworthy information to the Media, and here are the facts.
a) 1 MM people in the line for EB green card
b) All of them highly skilled with at least bachelors
c) Average income 75K +
d) Average family size: Slightly more than 2 .
e) Life Dream : The American Dream
f) Bottleneck to the life dream : The long ,excruciating backlogs.
thats even worse. you are taking a poll of 500 people (*IF* you get that many respondents to this poll, my feeling is you wont cross 250) and expanding that to 1 million people in line for EB greencard.
This is not extrapolation, its a joke.
For the sake of the immigrant community, please dont drag CNN to Immigrationvoice.org to look at a poll that 200 people took of which 50 claim they would buy a house if they got a GC tomorrow. We all lose credibility if we make such statements.
dresses Happy Birthday Text Art. --1
pappu
01-16 09:44 AM
Thank you Anurakt and others that have signed up. Anurakt I am sure this time our members will take up your challange and make you pay $500
more...
makeup friendster happy birthday
bomber
06-30 07:30 PM
Way to Go !
Let's get united (for the first time) and fight it tooth and nail.
We should not let them get away with something like this so easily.
To be honest with you all, last week when these rumors started, I thought once my case is filed, I don't care if they revise the bulletin or whatever. But after going through all this since yesterday, I don't want something like this to happen even to my enemies.
Even if my case is accepted(current in June, hopefully lawyer mailed it Friday for monday delivery) I'll support you guys in this fight!
So that it boosts up peoples who are similarly disappointed as i was last evening from 6 thru 9 PM ...
July bulletin is still C and no one can stop us from Mailing/ Posting !!
Let's get united (for the first time) and fight it tooth and nail.
We should not let them get away with something like this so easily.
To be honest with you all, last week when these rumors started, I thought once my case is filed, I don't care if they revise the bulletin or whatever. But after going through all this since yesterday, I don't want something like this to happen even to my enemies.
Even if my case is accepted(current in June, hopefully lawyer mailed it Friday for monday delivery) I'll support you guys in this fight!
So that it boosts up peoples who are similarly disappointed as i was last evening from 6 thru 9 PM ...
July bulletin is still C and no one can stop us from Mailing/ Posting !!
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divakarr
07-03 03:44 PM
just contribtuted $100. Confirmation Number: 8BU10382JA0786747.
Let's fight.
Let's fight.
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deepimpact
09-11 01:39 PM
And one thing that has not got enough press here is , how the EB3-ROW has got significant overflow in the last two months though EB2- I/C are no where near current. Per common understanding , they should not get a single overflow till EB2 is current .
Street Justice ??
EB3-ROW Pending per Aug 2009 I-485 Inventory ~ 63K
The EB3-ROW Demand for October 2010 ~ 45K.
So actually backlog reduction for EB3 ROW has just been 18 K (much less than the 30K they should get). I don't see where you are seeing the overflow.
The total Pending in Aug 2009 was
EB2 ALL- 75K. EB3 all -151K . So total ~ 225K
The demand data today is EB2 = 34K(this is only I/C, no ROW demand)
Demand for EB3 = 136K.
So even though reduction in backlog is significant (225K- 170K =55K). It is not going to all categories evenly.
And unless USCIS comes up with a smarter way to determine demand data other than counting pending I-485, once this demand goes to zero they will have to advance EB2 I/C dates. Now they can be smart and advance it by 6 months to not open up floodgates and test the post 2007 demand, or just follow the rule blindly that supply > demand and the category is current. Either way, the law prevents any spillover from a category unless it is current and EB2 I/C is not getting current in 2-3 years.
I also want to believe like you that the hidden demand post 2007 for EB2I/C + EB3 ROW is as low as possible. And we won't know about the exact number till USCIS does a better job of reporting approved I-140 by country.
Street Justice ??
EB3-ROW Pending per Aug 2009 I-485 Inventory ~ 63K
The EB3-ROW Demand for October 2010 ~ 45K.
So actually backlog reduction for EB3 ROW has just been 18 K (much less than the 30K they should get). I don't see where you are seeing the overflow.
The total Pending in Aug 2009 was
EB2 ALL- 75K. EB3 all -151K . So total ~ 225K
The demand data today is EB2 = 34K(this is only I/C, no ROW demand)
Demand for EB3 = 136K.
So even though reduction in backlog is significant (225K- 170K =55K). It is not going to all categories evenly.
And unless USCIS comes up with a smarter way to determine demand data other than counting pending I-485, once this demand goes to zero they will have to advance EB2 I/C dates. Now they can be smart and advance it by 6 months to not open up floodgates and test the post 2007 demand, or just follow the rule blindly that supply > demand and the category is current. Either way, the law prevents any spillover from a category unless it is current and EB2 I/C is not getting current in 2-3 years.
I also want to believe like you that the hidden demand post 2007 for EB2I/C + EB3 ROW is as low as possible. And we won't know about the exact number till USCIS does a better job of reporting approved I-140 by country.
tjayant
11-21 09:45 PM
Correct me guys if this is worng, it is my undestanding i can convert from EB3 to EB2 from same employer or from another employer but retain the priroirty date, say i applied by GC under EB3 say in 2003, i can ask my employer to convert to EB2 or another employer can file a new application under EB2 using PERM and use the same priority date as EB3 while file the I485
ujjvalkoul
03-07 03:24 PM
at the time when the PD becomes current....and u have used AC21 and now work for new employer. how would the USCIS know. Only way for them to know if to ask for a Employment letter(w/Job Duties, salary etc) and if they notice its not the sponsoring empoyer, they will look at it more closely....By the time all this happens you could be into the next month when you PD could have retrogressed back to 1900 again.....so as I see it....unless USCIS approved GC first thing w/o asking for additional info...is the best case scenario....
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